With climate change posing a significant threat to our planet, the concerted efforts to stabilize global temperatures have never been more urgent. The Paris Climate Agreement outlines critical goals to limit temperature rise—specifically, to keep the increase well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C. However, a recent study spearheaded by researchers at Chalmers University of Technology and the University of Bergen has cast doubt on the feasibility of achieving these targets, particularly in regards to the potential expansion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The study highlights a glaring gap between our current capabilities and the necessary advancements needed to utilize CCS extensively as part of climate mitigation strategies.

CCS represents a promising avenue through which carbon emissions can be curtailed; it entails capturing carbon dioxide emissions at their source and creating long-term storage solutions deep underground. Notably, certain applications like bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACCS) enable us to achieve negative emissions—effectively removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Yet, CCS has remained largely underutilized, posing questions about our preparedness to scale up this technology in time to meet ambitious climate commitments.

Projected Limits and Historical Context

The aforementioned study, published in *Nature Climate Change*, reveals a potentially sobering outlook: researchers estimate that only up to 600 Gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide can be sequestered using CCS technology throughout the century. This projection starkly contrasts with the even higher requirements proposed by many Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pathways, which often exceed 1,000 Gt of CO2 capture and storage. Tsimafei Kazlou, a Ph.D. candidate from the University of Bergen and the lead author of the study, emphasizes the pressing need to explore the timelines for large-scale implementation of CCS. Without timely action, limiting global temperature rise will become increasingly difficult.

The study is also a reminder of the historical unpredictability of CCS. A decade and a half ago, many ambitious CCS projects failed, leaving a trail of disappointment. With such high failure rates—nearly 90% during the last surge of CCS interest—there is a legitimate concern that present-day aspirational initiatives might likewise crumble. The volume of planned developments suggests that by 2030, CCS capacity could be eight times its current level. However, if historical trends in project viability persist, actual advancement may only yield a twofold capacity increase at best, rendering those optimistic projections inadequate.

Scaling Up: Lessons from Other Technologies

A notable critical insight from this research is how CCS technology typically develops in a non-linear fashion, akin to other emerging technologies. Industries like wind and nuclear power serve as instructive models for CCS. For instance, CCS will need to emulate the rapid expansion of wind energy adoption experienced in the early 2000s to satisfy the demands of efficient carbon dioxide reduction to meet the 2°C target. Subsequently, starting in the 2040s, it should achieve growth rates comparable to those of nuclear energy during its peak decades of the 1970s and 1980s.

The researchers importantly state that swift technology deployment alone will not suffice. A robust backing of policies and incentives is critical for CCS to thrive. Jessica Jewell, a leading figure in the study, articulates the dual need for both specific support for CCS projects as well as rapid advancements in alternative decarbonization technology to create a more sustainable energy landscape.

The conclusions drawn from this critical study underscore the necessity for a multi-pronged approach to climate action. While CCS undeniably has a vital role in pathways toward achieving our climate goals, relying solely on this technology is fraught with limitations. The path forward demands an integrated strategy that not only prioritizes advancing CCS but also accelerates investments in other renewable energy technologies. As the stakes of climate change continue to rise, it is imperative that policymakers, researchers, and industry leaders unite to create and support realistic frameworks for scaling up carbon capture initiatives, ensuring that we leave a habitable planet for generations to come. The window for effective action is closing, and the challenge now demands a decisive response.

Technology

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